Grant Shapps, Jeremy Hunt and Penny Mordaunt are among the prominent Tories set to lose their sets according to the latest polling (Pictures: Getty)
The Tories are set for a general election wipeout, with ‘big beasts’ Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps and Penny Mordaunt predicted to be unseated along with half the Cabinet.
The final round of polling once again suggested Labour is on course for a landslide that would eclipse even Tony Blair’s 1997 win.
More in Common has found counting will end with Labour on around 430 seats while Survation’s model – a survey of 34,558 respondents between June 15 and July 2 – suggests Labour’s tally could stretch to between 447 and 517.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps and Justice Secretary Alex Chalk are among the prominent Tories set to lose their seats according to three MRP polls, which look at constituency-level results as well as the national picture.
In each model, the Liberal Democrats are set to take Godalming and Ash, Surrey, where Mr Hunt is standing, and Cheltenham, Gloucestershire, contested by Mr Chalk.
More than half the Cabinet forecast to be unseated
Polling has suggested more than half the Cabinet could lose their seats.
Here Metro looks at who they are.
– Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Conservative MP for South West Surrey
Mr Hunt, who was first elected in 2005, won a majority of 8,817 at the 2019 general election.
Since 2010, he has served in several key Government roles, including as health secretary and culture secretary.
Mr Hunt, who was first elected in 2005, won a majority of 8,817 at the 2019 general election (Picture: Getty)
In the 2024 election, Mr Hunt will be campaigning to represent a new constituency, Godalming and Ash, due to a boundary review.
YouGov suggests the Liberal Democrats are set to win this new seat from him.
– Grant Shapps, Defence Secretary, Conservative MP for Welwyn Hatfield
The Defence Secretary won a majority of 10,955 in the 2019 election.
He could lose his seat to Labour, from whom he first won it in 2005.
– Penny Mordaunt, Leader of the House of Commons, Conservative MP for Portsmouth North
The Commons leader became a well-known political figure during the King’s coronation, during which she held aloft the jewelled Sword of Offering in her ceremonial duty as Lord President of the Council.
But her seat is likely to be won by Labour according to YouGov.
In 2019, her majority was 15,780.
Commons leader Penny Mordaunt became a well-known political figure during the King’s coronation (Picture: Getty)
– Johnny Mercer, veterans minister, Conservative MP for Plymouth Moor View
Veterans minister Mr Mercer first won his Plymouth constituency in 2015 from Labour, and held it in 2017 and 2019, where he had a majority of 12,897.
Labour could win the seat in the coming election.
– Alister Jack, Scotland Secretary, Conservative MP for Dumfries and Galloway
The Scotland Secretary has announced he will stand down at the next election but his seat could be in danger from the SNP.
In 2019, Mr Jack won a majority of 1,805 over his SNP opponent.
– Victoria Prentis, Attorney General, Conservative MP for Banbury
Ms Prentis has served as Banbury MP since 2015, a seat which has been held by a Conservative MP since the 1920s, and won a majority of 16,813 in 2019.
But boundary changes will see the constituency dramatically change, with the large town of Bicester split off into a new Bicester and Woodstock constituency.
YouGov predicts under the new boundaries that Banbury could be won by the Labour party.
– Alex Chalk, Justice Secretary, Conservative MP for Cheltenham
The Justice Secretary’s majority in 2019 was 981 over his Liberal Democrat opponent.
The Lib Dems, which held the seat prior to 2015, could win the seat back in 2024.
– David TC Davies, Wales Secretary, Conservative MP for Monmouthshire
The Wales Secretary’s Monmouth constituency will be abolished, with Mr Davies standing to represent the new Monmouthshire constituency.
In 2019, he won a majority of 9,982 over his nearest opponent, a Labour candidate.
YouGov suggests the seat could go to Labour.
– Gillian Keegan, Education Secretary, Conservative MP for Chichester
Ms Keegan won a majority of 21,490 over her nearest Lib Dem opponent at the 2019 general election.
While in YouGov’s latest April polling she is not predicted to lose her seat, pollsters have previously warned that she could.
Defence Secretary Grant Shapps and Education Secretary Gillian Keegan (Picture: PA)
– Lucy Frazer, Culture Secretary, Conservative MP for South East Cambridgeshire
The Culture Secretary will stand in the new Ely and East Cambridgeshire at the coming election, which is created in part from her old seat.
Similarly to Ms Keegan, YouGov’s April polling suggests she could hold the new constituency, though there have previously been warnings the seat could go to the Lib Dems.
She won a majority of 11,490 in 2019.
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Chichester in Sussex, contested by Education Secretary Gillian Keegan, is also unsafe, with YouGov and Survation suggesting the Liberal Democrats could win in the cathedral city constituency.
More in Common has listed Portsmouth North, contested by Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, as ‘too close to call’, with YouGov and Survation both hinting at Labour gains.
Sir Keir Starmer’s party is set to win in Welwyn Hatfield (contested by Mr Shapps), Monmouthshire (Welsh Secretary David TC Davies), Banbury (Attorney General Victoria Prentis) and Plymouth Moor View (Veterans Minister Johnny Mercer).
But Labour could face an upset in Islington North, where the party’s former leader Jeremy Corbyn has a 91% chance of winning as an independent candidate, according to More in Common.
Survation has suggested Labour will win the London seat, with YouGov listing it as a ‘tossup’, leaning towards Labour.
An average of all polls completed during the seven days to July 3 puts Labour on 39%, the party’s lowest rating since the campaign began, 18 points ahead of the Conservatives on 21%, followed by Reform on 16%, the Lib Dems on 11% and the Greens on 6%.
The Tories are up slightly on the figures for the previous week while Labour are down, with the averages for the seven days to June 26 being Labour 41%, Conservatives 20%, Reform 16%, Lib Dems 11% and Greens 6%.
On May 22, the day Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called the General Election, the seven-day averages stood at Labour 45%, Conservatives 23%, Reform 11%, Lib Dems 9% and Greens 6%.
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