VLADIMIR Putin’s tight grip on Russia could last for years with the tyrant having more power than ever before, a former Kremlin adviser warned.
Political scientist and professor Nikolay Petrov told The Sun he believes Putin is irreplaceable and virtually unmovable from the top seat in Russia due to his iron-clad control over those beneath him.
AFPVladimir Putin may stay as the top man in Russia for years to come, says a former Kremlin adviser[/caption]
APPutin is irreplaceable and virtually unmovable from the top seat in Russia due to his iron-clad control over those beneath him, says Petrov[/caption]
APPutin has almost complete control over his cronies in the Kremlin, according to experts[/caption]
Petrov was once the right-hand man for the first Russian president Boris Yeltsin in the ’90s and he is confident that Putin’s reign of terror will continue as he celebrates turning 72.
The Russian political expert told The Sun that over the next two to three years Putin’s regime looks very stable.
This is due to the Russian elites cosying up to Vlad following the continued sanctions from the West over Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Many oligarchs with ties to the Kremlin were slapped with restrictions on their movement and fiances in 2022 leaving their businesses and relationships on the rocks.
Most were left deciding if they wanted to support Putin and stay in Russia or desert him at the beginning of the invasion.
Almost all of those who stayed close to the tyrant rallied around him despite the looming threat of additional Western sanctions.
Petrov also warned that life after Vlad’s reign could see Russia destabilised with no one powerful enough left to take the reins.
He says Putin’s weak cronies and brainwashed citizens are completely relevant on him and a period of chaos would follow without the tyrant.
The professor said: “The elites are hostages of Putin, absolutely dependent on him.
“And the elites cannot plot against Putin not only due to disunity, suspicion and strict control over them but also due to the risks of large-scale destabilization.”
Russia’s authoritarian system is widely accepted across the nation with civilians being indoctrinated by Kremlin propaganda for decades.
The elites are hostages of Putin, absolutely dependent on him
Nikolay Petrov
But for many Russians – including the elites – Putin’s way of life and his created society is seen as the norm.
Without Putin at the helm, however, the entire system may collapse within months.
Petrov confidently predicted that the Russian regime in its current form is “unlikely to outlive its creator”.
“Most likely, we can expect a period of chaos at first, with two possible ways out of it,” he added.
“Going into a new authoritarianism or a slow movement towards the restoration of democracy.
“The war in Ukraine, whatever its outcome, by that time will reduce the already low chances of the second option.”
Petrov says these political elitists have constantly weakened since the annexation of Crimea mainly due to Putin’s approval ratings soaring.
He said: “A leader like Putin who relies directly on the support of the masses does not need elites as intermediaries.
“With the outbreak of a full-scale war in 2022, the elites, as political actors with a certain independence, disappeared completely.
“They turned into personnel nomenklatura – officials at various levels, carrying out instructions from above, into cogs in the machine.
“Only a few third and fourth-rank officials left both the system and the country at the very beginning of the war.
“Those who remain now have no choice, they are like the crew of a submarine in diving conditions.”
The ageing leader will turn 77 at the end of his current reign as president in 2030.
Putin is ageing, and regardless of his physical condition, in which he invests a lot, he is gradually ceasing to be an autocratic tsar as was the case between 2014 and 2022
Nikolay Petrov
With major changes set to happen within the Kremlin if Putin potentially resigns or even dies in the future.
“The future after Putin is unlikely to be better than the present,” Petrov said.
He has always played the role of the “supreme arbiter” over his cronies and managed to maintain his nation’s balance – something Petrov thinks no one will be able to replicate.
When Putin goes, the seasoned Kremlin critic thinks the entire system of personalised checks and balances the leader has created will be destroyed.
Leaving the system to plunge into chaos.
ReutersPutin walks into his inauguration ceremony at the Kremlin surrounded by his cronies[/caption]
AlamyVlad turns 72 today as he continues to show signs of ageing[/caption]
ReutersPetrov’s former boss and first Russian president Boris Yeltsin shaking hands with a young Putin[/caption]
Nikolay Petrov is confident that Putin’s reign of terror will continue on as he celebrates turning 72
LIFE AFTER VLAD
Putin has long prided himself on his “strongman” image – but dramatic changes in his appearance over the past few years have prompted speculation he may be suffering from a severe illness.
His public appearances have shown him out of breath, stumbling over his words and even looking exhausted at times.
With experts and doctors alike telling The Sun they have no doubt his health has deteriorated.
And despite Petrov saying Putin is in control of his Kremlin cronies and safe as president for as long as he chooses he does feel Russia will soon have to gear up for a post-Putin era.
The despot is showing signs of struggling to remain a powerful leader in the eyes of his political pals as he ages well into his 70s.
GettyPutin back in 1999 when he was the prime minister of Russia[/caption]
East2WestPutin riding a horse back in 2013 with the tyrant always looking to keep up his strongman image[/caption]
The former adviser says his experience within the Kremlin points towards the dictatorship regime slowly starting to adapt to cope with Vlad’s raising age.
Petrov said: ”Putin is ageing, and regardless of his physical condition, in which he invests a lot, he is gradually ceasing to be an autocratic tsar as was the case between 2014 and 2022.
“In this sense, we can say that post-Putin Russia is already gradually replacing Putin’s.”
A decade ago, Putin first stamped his authority in Russia and showed the world his bullish behaviour was something for everyone to fear when he stole back Crimea.
In the eight years after this first invasion Putin has continued his dominance as he gradually built up a plan to smash across the Ukraine border and take back the land he felt Russia deserved.
During this spell as Russian leader, Putin was allowed to make decisions without fear of violating the interests of his nation’s main elite groups, Petrov claims.
But ever since his war in Eastern Europe started to falter as Ukraine bravely stood toe-to-toe with the tyrant, Putin has been kept on a tighter leash, the professor added.
He said: “This is especially noticeable in personnel decisions, which in some cases are not made for a year or more.
“Recent personnel decisions have been made in batches in order to balance the interests of all major clans.”
TYRANNICAL REGIME CONTINUED
Petrov also analysed the nightmare scenario for Russia in the case that Putin dies without warning – leaving the Kremlin scrambling.
This will leave the most powerful men in Russia vying for the honour of being the countries next leader.
Potentially causing an internal divide over who leads going forward.
He feels that at the moment there is no stand-out candidate to replace Vlad due to the power and influence he holds.
Petrov said: ”In the case that Putin dies, no one can immediately replace him in his current capacity as tsar.
“It can be assumed that, as in 1953 after the death of Stalin, some kind of coalition of elites will arise, within which the powers of the deceased leader will be divided.
“An internal struggle for power will begin, during which, in search of support within the country and outside, various figures individually and collectively will take popular steps.”
The other potential option those like Petrov are more fearful of is a military backed rise to the top.
“Another scenario is a struggle of all against all, in which the winners may be figures who rely on the unconditional support of a fairly serious armed force,” the former adviser continued.
“For example, the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, who practically has his own personal army.”
East2WestVladimir Putin with pal and head of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov[/caption]
GettyA Ukrainian tank firing in the direction of Russia as Putin continues to struggle with his invasion[/caption]