Hostile powers have their sights on the UK’s expanding nuclear industry according to a leading risk management expert (Picture: Emily Manley, Metro.co.uk/AFP/Getty)
The UK’s nuclear facilities are at high risk from hostile states who are tipping the world into war, according to an expert in risk management.
Dr Simon Bennett warned that World War Three is only a matter of years away, with Russia already pursuing a strategy of ‘atomic blackmail’.
Dr Bennett revived author Bennett Ramberg’s Cold War-era theory of how nuclear power facilities can be weaponised for political ends in calling on the UK government to ramp up defence spending.
He also believes the potential exists for a cornered Vladimir Putin to escalate from psyops to a deliberate use of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant as a dirty bomb, which would have devastating consequences for Ukraine and neighbouring countries.
The risk management expert, of the University of Leicester, warned that the UK government has ‘lost sight’ of its primary duty to protect its citizens amid a slide to global conflict.
‘The full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia is the first large-scale conflict where there are potentially numerous nuclear power plants at risk,’ he said.
‘Not only at Zaporizhzhia, which is Europe’s largest power plant, but in Russia, where the current incursion could see the Ukrainians reach the Kursk nuclear power station if they drive hard to the east.
‘In the 80s, Bennett Ramberg came up with the hypothesis of atomic blackmail, which is based on the premise that as the number of nuclear power stations grows, so does the potential for an aggressor to use them to gain leverage over the owners.
Ukraine has accused Russia of deliberately starting a fire at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (Picture: Getty/East2West)
‘The potential for a facility like Zaporizhzhia to be used very crudely against an opponent is clear to see.
‘If the plant, which has six reactors, was rigged with powerful demolition mines, and they were detonated, the radiation would be off the scale.
‘It’s possible the Russians have already placed explosives there.’
Dr Bennett, director of the university’s Civil Safety and Security Unit, told Metro.co.uk that Putin — who is under pressure after Ukraine’s invasion of Russia’s Kursk region — is capable of the unthinkable.
He a drew a comparison with one of the darkest days of history.
‘Using Zaporizhzhia for atomic blackmail gives Putin leverage over not just Ukraine but the entire world,’ Dr Bennett said.
‘While at the moment he is trying to scare Ukraine and its Western allies with the tacit threat of a nuclear incident, history suggests that, if cornered, he could become what psychologists term an “irrational actor”.
‘If the war goes against him, this could mean blowing up Zaporizhzhia as an act of spite, just as Hitler ordered Albert Speer to destroy Germany’s infrastructure at the end of World War Two.
‘Speer refused to carry out what historians term the Nero Decree.’
The estimated number of nuclear weapons in selected nations on the world map (Picture: Getty Images)
One of the latest safety incidents at Zaporizhzhia came last week when smoke was filmed rising from one of the cooling towers at the Russian-held facility in eastern Ukraine.
Experts doubted there was any risk of an explosion, with Ukraine saying that the fire was started deliberately by setting light to tyres.
However the use of the plant in this way, which follows continued reports of incidents involving drones and shelling, fits with Ramberg’s theory — and has implications for the UK’s own security, according to Dr Bennett.
On Saturday, the safety situation at Zaporizhzhia was ‘deteriorating’ after a nearby drone strike, the International Atomic Energy Agency said.
The party behind the explosion, just outside the site’s protected area, has not been identified.
RAF Typhoon jets intercept a Russian ‘Bear’ military aircraft north of Scotland on April 30, 2023 (Picture: RAF/UK MoD)
Under Rishi Sunak, the British government announced the biggest expansion in nuclear power for 70 years, and the new prime minister is also committed to building new facilities.
Through Ramberg’s thesis, the British sites can be seen in the same way as those in Ukraine in being susceptible to sabotage and infiltration.
‘If we think more laterally, the number of power stations in the UK is growing, and through the optics of Ramberg’s theory, we are offering our enemies more targets and potentially more leverage over us in a conflict,’ Dr Bennett said.
‘The Russian FSB security agency and GRU military intelligence are very good at hybrid warfare, so what they could be doing at the moment is recruiting and running individuals as “sleepers” within the British state and potentially within the nuclear industry, ready to be activated at any moment. Three civil servants have recently been charged under the National Security Act and my understanding is that they are alleged to have been spying for China.’
The nuclear reactor at Hinkley Point C in Somerset is among the UK’s critical infrastructure (Picture: Ben Birchall/PA Wire)
The full-scale invasion of Ukraine has brought with it high-level warnings that the UK is headed for a direct military confrontation with Russia.
British sites, including a shipyard housing nuclear submarines in Barrow-in-Furness, were last week reported by the Financial Times to be on the Kremlin’s list of targets.
Tobias Ellwood, former chair of the Commons Select Committee, responded by saying: ‘We must wake up — storm clouds are gathering.’
Dr Bennett said: ‘The British state needs to take these nuclear threats far more seriously not just within the optics of the Ukraine-Russia war but because, in my opinion, there will be a world war in the next five to 10 years. It will start in the Asia-Pacific, where China will invade Taiwan and, because of the Aukus pact, we will be directly involved in defending Taiwan.
‘Russia will be involved because of its ties with China, leading to a multi-hemisphere conflict.’
The Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile forms part of Russia’s nuclear arsenal (Picture: Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via EPA)
Dr Bennett, whose book ‘Atomic Blackmail?’ examines the weaponisation of nuclear facilities in the Russia-Ukraine war, has raised the issues in letters and emails to various governments, including that of Rishi Sunak, but to date has not received any acknowledgement.
‘In my opinion, the government obsession with net zero and climate change agreements distracts from a far greater threat to safety, namely atomic blackmail,’ he said.
‘The primary purpose of the state is national security and in my view we have lost sight of that purpose. The Labour government is carrying out a defence review when what we really need is to raise the 2% of GDP we spend on defence to a minimum 4% of GDP.’
The prospect of an apocalyptic conflict in a matter of years has gained traction during the Ukraine-Russia war and China’s continued pressure on Taiwan, which it views as its own territory.
The author intends to continue trying to raise the alarm.
‘It might sound sanctimonious, but my job is simply to raise awareness and try to save lives,’ he said. ‘I left a good job in London because I wanted to do something for my fellow human beings and to give something back to Britain, which has been good to me.
‘I’m not disheartened, I will keep on trying and if people don’t want to listen to me that’s fine, it’s their loss.’
Metro.co.uk has approached the Ministry of Defence for comment.
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