Map reveals European holiday destinations where heat deaths risk spiking

The dark purple areas show ‘extreme’ heat-related mortality (Picture: https://forecaster.health)

The UK has had a disappointingly cool summer so far, but our European neighbours are having the opposite problem.

It was 30°C in Paris yesterday with 34°C predicted this weekend. Madrid in Spain and Nicosia in Cyprus are set to bake even more, pushing 40°C on Sunday.

A heatwave has been raging for much of the summer, prompting travel warnings for British holidaymakers due to high temperatures and associated wildfires.

The areas where the risk of heat-related death is at its highest can now be seen using a new interactive map, a potentially helpful tool for tourists.

Forecaster.health is a freely accessible early health warning system for 580 regions in 31 European countries, funded by the European Research Council and available since June.

It shows a stark divide between northern and southern Europe when it comes to temperature, with red and purple painting the Mediterranean coast and the UK untroubled by such concerns this week.

Much of southern Spain and southwestern France was classed as ‘extreme’, as well as many of the Greek islands and the west coast of Italy.

People spend time at Barcelona beach as the city broke a historical heat record with 40°C at the Fabra Observatory on July 31 (Picture: Anadolu/Getty)

A continent of two halves today (Picture: https://forecaster.health)

Barcelona-based IS Global, which created the map, said: ‘Ambient temperatures are associated with more than 5 million premature deaths a year worldwide, more than 300,000 of them in Western Europe.

‘In a context of rapid warming where temperatures have successively broken previous records over the past two decades, it is essential to use epidemiological models to develop novel early warning systems that anticipate the effects of expected temperatures on health.’

In high temperatures, governments prepare for a spike in heat-related deaths, as bodies must work harder to stay at a safe temperature, making heart attacks and strokes more likely as well as worsening asthma and lung conditions.

These effects begin to kick in above 25°C or 26°C, with around 2,000 deaths in hot weather each year on average in England.

Heat alerts were in place here during the mini heatwave we had in July, with elderly people at risk as well as those with health conditions.

That was only with temperatures around 30°C at maximum, so when the mercury starts to push 40°C the health risk becomes much more severe.

To use the map, enter the date you want health predictions for up to two weeks in advance, as well as the population group you want information for.

The map will then be colour-coded by which areas are at risk from heat or cold deaths:low, moderate, high and extreme.

It is based on temperature records and forecasts and uses epidemiological models to quantify the risk of temperature-related mortality by sex and age group.

Erika Radford, from Asthma + Lung UK, said: ‘Hot summer weather can bring on asthma symptoms like chest tightness, coughing, breathlessness and wheezing for some people.

‘The exact causes are not fully understood, but it’s thought that the warmer air may cause the airways to narrow. Additionally, during hot weather, there tends to be an increase in pollen levels, which can trigger potentially life-threatening asthma attacks.

‘Hot and humid weather can also worsen symptoms in people with other lung conditions, like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), especially if you become dehydrated.

To find out the data for a specific date, use the interactive map on the website here.

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