Newly lowered Ukrainian draft age ‘could shrink its future population’

Zelensky signed the bill into law in recent days (Picture: Reuters)

Ukraine has lowered their military conscription age from 27 to 25 in an effort to replenish its depleted forces.

The new controversial mobilisation law came into effect today, a day after it was signed by President Volodymyr Zelensky.

There’s been hesitation from Mr Zelensky to sign the bill, which now makes nearly500,000 men eligible to serve in the military.

The initial enthusiasm for going out to fight against the Kremlin’s forces has waned, though public support for the war remains high.

Some Ukrainians also worry that taking young adults out of the workforce will backfire by further harming the war-ravaged economy.

But the newly lowered conscription age could also have unintended consequences down the line.

An older army

The average age of those in the military is around 40 (Picture: AP)

The generation now eligible to be conscripted is one of the smallest in Ukraine, due to a major dip in birth levels in the 1990s.

The average age of Ukrainian soldiers is around 40, military analysts say, and men younger than 60 are still forbidden from travelling abroad.

Zelensky signed the lower conscription age into law at a time when commanders say they do not have enough soldiers to launch offensives, and barely enough to hold positions during intensifying Russian assaults.

Oksana Zabolotna, an analyst with the Centre for United Actions, said: ‘These laws introduce changes only to some aspects of the mobilisation process. But still there are many other issues that have to be resolved.

‘There are about half a million men aged 25-27. Some of them are unfit for service, some have left, some are (in the) reserve or have the right to deferment.’

Ukraine had 9,307,315 men aged 25-59 in 2022, according to the World Bank – a figure which is lower than it may have been if former Soviet countries did not enter a recession in the 1990s, which lowered the birth rates significantly.

Because of this, Ukraine has three times as many men in their 40s than in their 20s – could drafting the younger generations hurt the future population of Ukraine?

Worries for future generations

Morale has declined slightly as the war rages on (Picture: AP)

Mobilising an estimated 500,000 more eligible men to fight in the war against Russia may aide in their campaign to take back their land, but will not solve it, experts say.

In fact, it could have a devastating effect – the country’s demographics could be affected further, after birth rates already decreased due to the war.

Since 2021, the birth rate in Ukraine has declined by 5%, according to the United Nations.

Now that the conscription age has been lowered again – and has targeted men at an age where they often become parents – worries of an affect on future Ukrainian generations have been raised.

Ukraine’s population has been steadily declining for the last 30 years due to a multitude of reasons: negative birth rates, large labour migration and more.

But the war has accelerated the depopulation of Ukraine, with a massive number of both soldiers and citizens killed in the conflict.

Another nail in the coffin?

The new conscription age may replenish troop numbers, but could have other consequences (Picture: AP)

Ukraine is struggling to source weapons as the flow from the US is slowing.

In March alone, the Kremlin’s forces launched more than 400 missiles of various types, 600 Iranian-designed Shahed drones, and more than 3,000 guided aerial bombs against Ukraine.

Keir Giles, a Russia expert at Chatham House, told Metro.co.uk that the population problem is yet another way that Russia has blighted Ukraine’s prospects.

He said: ‘The demographic collapse that followed the end of the Soviet Union hit Russia especially hard. And the timing means that the age cohort that felt the filter biggest collapse has now fed through conscription age, and is impacting the economy through a shortage of labour.

‘In Russia’s case, that’s been made worse not only by the massive number of casualties in the war in Ukraine, but also by hundreds of thousands of Russians leaving the country trying to avoid it.

‘But Russia can compensate for this by using methods of rounding up people for the troops that Ukraine cannot even consider.

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‘As a democracy, Ukraine have to manage its manpower requirements in a way that is sensitive to its citizens and their feelings about the war – unlike Russia, which can empty its prisons and target ethnic minorities to find more bodies to throw into the meat grinder.

‘That political sensitivity is one reason why changes to Ukraine’s mobilisation system, long seen as overdue, have taken so long to implement.

‘Whatever the outcome, it’s just another way Russia’s war of reconquest has blighted the prospects of Ukraine and Ukrainians for generations.

‘But Ukrainians know there is no alternative – they must fight, and some must die, because the experience of the occupied territories shows the alternative is far worse.’

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