In preparation for this scenario the Russian military is undertaking structural reforms (Picture: Reuters)
Russia appears to be preparing for a large-scale conflict with Nato sooner than expected, a think tank has warned.
American policy research group The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reached the conclusion after analysing military, economic and financial indicators.
President Vladimir Putin’s attempts to stabilise Russia’s economy are said to be part of preparations for a potential future large-scale conflict with Nato, not just for a protracted war in Ukraine.
According to the ISW assessment, the Russian military is making reforms so it can keep fighting in Ukraine while also expanding its conventional capabilities in case it decides to ramp up the aggression.
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has said the military plans to form two combined-arms armies and 14 divisions and 16 brigades by the end of this year.
However, the ISW isn’t so optimistic, saying Putin currently lacks the manpower, infrastructure, and training capacity to properly staff the divisions in the short term.
Other changes within the Russian government, such as the appointment of Lieutenant General Andrei Bulyga as the deputy defense minister, may also suggest the country is preparing for a long-term conflict.
As part of this plan, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has outlined several ongoing strategies to improve Russia’s military capabilities. (Picture: EPA)
On Monday, Polish President Andrzej Duda said Nato must boost its defence spending as a matter of urgency.
Speaking to CNBC, he cited unspecified German research suggesting Putin is doubling down on his shift toward a war economy with a view to attacking Nato in 2026 or 2027.
‘The alarm bells are ringing,’ Mr Duda said in the interview.
He added: ‘We have two or three years in which we can increase our efforts, stockpile ammunition and produce weapons to maximize European security, get ready and make sure the invasion does not happen.
‘All this needs to be done in order not to have to get involved in a fight. The point is to create such a deterrent that ensures we are not attacked. This is the whole point because none of us want war.’
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