The nervy wait to find out if fifth place will qualify continues (Picture: Getty/Metro.co.uk)
The race for an extra place in next season’s Champions League is hotting up and Arsenal have just done their Premier League rivals a huge favour by defeating Porto.
Mikel Arteta’s side were surprisingly beaten by Porto in the first leg of their last-16 clash after a 94th-minute winner from Galeno at the Estadio do Dragao and they needed a penalty shootout to eliminate the Portuguese side at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday night to seal their progress into the last eight.
Aston Villa, Tottenham and Manchester United will all have had one eye on the match and the victory could have a big impact on whether the Premier League nabs an extra spot in the Champions League or not.
How does it work?
For the 2024/25 Champions League campaign, there will be an expanded tournament with 36 teams. That is four more than currently, with two of those places to be filled by so-called ‘European Performance Spots’.
Those places will be assigned to the associations with the best collective performance – that is to say, their coefficient – by their clubs in Europe this season. For the Premier League, who already get four Champions League spots, that would mean fifth place also qualifies.
But English clubs have performed rather poorly this season, with both Manchester United and Newcastle eliminated in the group stages of the Champions League, while their Europa League and Europa Conference League representatives actually missed out on additional coefficient points by qualifying as group winners and skipping the Play-Off round.
Wins are rewarded with two coefficient points and a draw is worth one point, with nothing for a defeat, while there are also bonus points for participation at various stages of the competitions. The tally is then divided by the number of clubs an association has competing in Europe to create a coefficient average.
Prior to Arsenal’s showdown with Porto, Italy were leading the race by a quite significant margin, racking up 116 points across their seven clubs for an average of 16.571. Germany were second with 15.500 and England third with 14.625, though France are hot on their heels.
What is the coefficient now?
Following Tuesday’s matches, the upper echelons of the coefficient table now look like this…
Italy – 16.571
Germany – 15.500
England – 15.000
France – 14.416
Spain – 13.812
Czech Republic – 13.000
Arsenal’s win, coupled with a bonus point for progressing to and participating in the quarter-finals, means it is worth 0.375 points to the Premier League’s coefficient score.
Italy remain in a strong position despite Napoli’s loss, with five teams still active and progressing well, and the second European Performance Spot is likely to be contested by Germany, England, France and Spain.
Bayern are leading the Bundesliga’s charge in Europe (Picture: Getty)
Germany | Qualified: 1 | In action: 3 | Maximum coefficient score: 23.094
Germany’s hopes were sightly dented last week by RB Leipzig’s elimination from the Champions League, though Bayern Munich edged out Lazio and Borussia Dortmund could also progress if they overcome PSV on Wednesday night.
Freiberg secured a surprise 1-0 victory over West Ham in the Europa League despite losing home and away against the Hammers in the group stage, while Bayer Leverkusen were 2-0 down away at Qarabag but rallied to draw. The tie between Freiberg and West Ham could play a hugely decisive role in the final coefficient standings.
Liverpool have one foot in the last eight of the Europa League (Picture: Getty)
England | Qualified: 2 | In action: 4 | Maximum coefficient score: 24.000
Arsenal eliminating Porto means both they and Manchester City have made it to the last eight of the Champions League and suddenly the coefficient situation is looking a lot healthier.
In the Europa League, Liverpool will almost certainly progress after dispatching Sparta Prague 5-1 last week, though Brighton were hammered 4-0 by Roma and will need a miracle to reach the last eight.
West Ham must overturn a 1-0 deficit against Freiburg, while, in the Europa Conference League, Aston Villa must bounce back from a 4-0 thumping against Spurs when they host Ajax, having drawn the first leg in Amsterdam.
PSG’s Kylian Mbappe put Real Sociedad to the sword (Picture: Getty)
France | Qualified: 1 | In action: 2 | Maximum coefficient score: 21.250
Ligue 1 looked to be out of the running for one of the top two berths not so long ago but their position has been strengthened by big first-leg victories for Marseille against Villarreal and Lille against Sturm Graz.
Paris Saint-Germain have already secured their spot in the last eight of the Champions League after swatting aside Real Sociedad, but Lens, Stade Rennais and Toulouse have all been eliminated meaning at least one French side will likely need to go all the way to seal second spot.
Real’s win over Leipzig actually boosted England’s hopes (Picture: Getty)
Spain | Qualified: 2 | In action: 2 | Maximum coefficient score: 19.437
Barcelona saw off Napoli on Tuesday evening to join Real Madrid in the last eight of the Champions League, while Atletico Madrid could yet join them too if they beat Inter on Wednesday – though they are trailing 1-0 from the first leg.
The issue for La Liga is that Villarreal are effectively out of the Europa League after losing 4-0 to Marseille last week, while their other four teams are already eliminated. With points likely only available in the Champions League moving forward (where they can, of course, now be drawn against each other) it would take a miracle for Spain to nab the extra spot.
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The Czech Republic, meanwhile, are technically still in with a surprise shout, though either Slavia Prague or Sparta Prague would need to overturn heavy first-leg defeats against AC Milan and Liverpool respectively, while Viktoria Plzen would need to go very deep in the Europa Conference League.
What does it all mean?
Essentially, Italy have all but wrapped up one of the two European Performance Spots and it would take a calamitous series of results for that to change. The race for the second spot is still wide open, however.
Premier League hopes likely hinge on West Ham and Aston Villa on Thursday night, while they will be cheering on PSV against Dortmund on Wednesday too. English sides will also be hoping for kind quarter-final draws when the balls are pulled out of the pots at Friday’s ceremony.
Who stands to benefit?
Right now, Tottenham are the side occupying fifth place in the Premier League and would be in line to profit if England secures one of the European Performance Spots.
The north Londoners, though, are just two points behind fourth-placed Aston Villa with a game in hand and will fancy their chances of securing Champions League football outright without sweating over the coefficient. Manchester United are six points behind Spurs in sixth and will definitely be hoping that fifth place is upgraded to a Champions League spot.
In Italy, a resurgent Roma currently occupy fifth place with Atalanta not far behind. Should the other European Performance Spot go to Germany, RB Leipzig would currently stand to benefit – though they are only one point behind fourth-placed Dortmund.
In Ligue 1, any of Lille, Lens (currently fifth), Nice or even Marseille would stand to benefit, with a host of teams in the European mix, while Athletic Bilbao are the fifth-placed team in La Liga with a big buffer below them.
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