Opta Sports, a British sports analytics company, has used its supercomputer to predict the outcome of the upcoming 2023 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) in Ivory Coast. Their analysis ranks Nigeria as the 6th favourite country to win the tournament, offering a potential chance for glory after a decade.
The 34th edition of the AFCON kicks off this Saturday, with the final scheduled for February 11. The Super Eagles find themselves in Group A alongside hosts Ivory Coast, Equatorial Guinea, and Guinea-Bissau. They aim to secure their fourth AFCON title, having previously triumphed in 1980, 1994, and 2013.
Opta’s predictions give Nigeria an 8.1% chance of lifting the trophy. This potential victory would mark a significant comeback after failing to qualify for the 2015 and 2017 editions, followed by a third-place finish in 2019 and a disappointing last-16 exit in 2022. Coach José Peseiro will be hoping for a much better showing this time around, particularly if his star attackers can find their form.
Napoli’s Victor Osimhen was the leading scorer in qualifying, netting an impressive 10 goals – twice as many as any other player. Since the last AFCON, only four players in the top five European leagues have outscored Osimhen’s 42 goals: Mbappé (65), Kane (63), Haaland (56), and Martínez (47).
However, an injury to fellow striker Victor Boniface adds extra pressure on Osimhen’s shoulders to carry the Nigerian attack. Boniface’s absence is undoubtedly a blow for Peseiro, with the Bayer Leverkusen striker having amassed 10 goals and 7 assists in just 16 Bundesliga appearances this season. Nice’s Terem Moffi has been called up as his replacement.
Despite this setback, the Super Eagles still boast plenty of dynamism in midfield, with only nine Premier League players surpassing Alex Iwobi’s tally of 13 shot-ending carries for Fulham in 2023-24. Atalanta’s Ademola Lookman is expected to start on the left, and his open-play goals per 90 minutes ratio in Serie A this season is second only to Lautaro Martínez.
While Nigeria has a realistic chance of lifting the trophy, navigating Group A will be no easy feat. They face Equatorial Guinea and Guinea-Bissau before a crucial clash with the hosts on January 18.
Defending champions Senegal sit atop the rankings with a 12.8% chance of retaining their title, followed by Ivory Coast (12.1%), Morocco (11.1%), and Algeria (9.7%). Egypt and Nigeria hold the fifth and sixth place, respectively.
