Soldiers of the artillery battery of the 59th Motorized Brigade of the Ukrainian army in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on December 16, 2023 (Picture: Getty)
Vladimir Putin appears to be open to a ceasefire in Ukraine on one condition – if Volodymyr Zelensky surrenders occupied territories, senior officials close to the Kremlin have warned.
Publicly, Russia’s leader has been outspoken about his war ambitions, but behind closed doors he has reportedly been giving different signals to his intermediaries.
Since at least September, the president – who announced his firth election run in December – has been telling allies that he is satisfied with the captured territories and is ready for a pause in fighting, the New York Times reported.
Citing two former senior Russian officials close to the Kremlin and American and international officials who have received the message from Putin, the report said he is ready to declare victory and move on.
A Ukrainian soldier loads a shell into a mortar on December 23, 2023, in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine (Picture: Getty)
‘He really is willing to stop at the current positions,’ one of the ex-senior Russian officials told the NYT, relaying a message he said the Kremlin was quietly sending.
The former official added, ‘Putin is not willing to retreat one meter.’
But there is no evidence to suggest that Ukraine would ever agree to such a deal as previously stated by Zelensky.
Giving up occupied territories would mean abandoning hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians living across Crimea, parts of Luhansk, Donetsk, parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in Putin’s hands.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analysed claims that he has been sending signals through backchannels for months.
Analysts said: ‘The timing of Putin’s reported interest in a ceasefire is consistent with Russia’s ongoing efforts to delay and discourage further Western military assistance to Ukraine, than with a serious interest in ending the war other than with a full Russian victory.’
It is noted that ISW observed similar efforts to mislead Western policymakers into pressuring Ukraine to negotiate with Russia last winter.
This is part of efforts to redirect their focus onto hypothetical negotiations rather than ensuring that Ukraine has sufficient weaponry, analysts warned.
They suggest that the the Kremlin is likely using backchannels to achieve a similar effect amidst ongoing debates for further military aid to Ukraine.
‘All these motivations reflect temporary reasons why Putin might pursue a temporary ceasefire that would benefit Russia by allowing Russia the time to prepare for renewed aggression against Ukraine,’ ISW assessed.
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