The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has stated the economic implications of military options in Niger.
The CEO of CPPE, Dr Muda Yusuf stated that, “ECOWAS decision to pressure the military junta in Niger to restore constitutional democracy in that country is a welcome development.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, being the current chairman of ECOWAS is saddled with enormous leadership responsibility at this crucial time in the region’s history.”
He noted that, “however, any contemplation of military intervention should take into account the wider social, economic, welfare and security implications for the countries of the sub region and their citizens. There are far reaching macroeconomic, trade and security and geopolitical ramifications which should be carefully considered. The risk of high collateral damage is also very high.
“This is a defining moment for ECOWAS which calls for rigorous thinking, robust consultation, sound diplomatic judgment, a deep sense of history and an exhaustive evaluation of the many ramifications. It is also critical for ECOWAS to consider the geopolitical dimensions of the unfolding developments in the sub region.”
According to Yusuf, “one of the key mandates of ECOWAS is the promotion of economic integration. Military actions among member states would surely negate this fundamental objective. It would perpetuate fragmentation of the region and trade within the region will be severely impacted. This has grave consequences for the economies of the economies of member states and the welfare of the citizens.
“Already the recent border closure is beginning to adversely impact on traders on both sides of the divide. The truth is that sanctions are typically a double-edged sword which is why it needs to be cautiously and strategically applied.”
On security implication, he noted that, there is a risk that the fragile security situation in the sub region may further deteriorate in the event of a military assault on Niger, saying “current acts of terrorism in the region require concerted efforts by ECOWAS countries to tackle them. Nigeria needs the cooperation of its neighbours to effectively confront terrorism in the country.”
He noted that the financial cost of a military campaign could be quite staggering and unpredictable and there are valuable lessons to learn from Nigeria’s military operations in Liberia and Sierra Leone over two decades ago.
He pointed out that “Nigeria’s current balance of payment position is weak and may not be able to support any major military engagement outside our shores. Our external sector is fragile, posing a profound challenge of currency volatility.
“The worsening of the external sector would adversely impact investors’ confidence, weaken growth prospects and decelerate the pace of economic recovery.”
He further noted that “if Nigeria decides to go ahead with a military campaign in Niger, our defence spending may have to increase substantially, possibly by 100 per cent or more. Over 70 per cent of the spending would have to be foreign exchange. Though the military option would be an ECOWAS decision, the burden of prosecuting the operation would have to be borne substantially by Nigeria.”